A first look at all the races in Colorado. Have the Democrats crested? Is there anywhere they can pick up any seats?
Cross posted at Square State.net, where Colorado's elite meet to eat.
First and foremost is the presidential race and, depending on who the nominee is, I think we will have a race in Colorado. Only the monumental stupidity of the Shrum strategem deprived Colorado of a race in 2004. The "Shrum Strategem" is holding all the Gore states from 2000 and winning either Florida or Ohio. The only candidate likely to adopt the Shrum strategem in 2008 is Hillary Clinton. Obama, Richardson and Edwards all are anti-Shrum candidates and Richardson is running with an explicit attempt to pick off Western states like Colorado. Edwards also has a strategy of going after some Southern states which would, in turn, broaden his appeal in Colorado. If Gore gets in, I think he makes Colorado competitive. An important factor is the convention. The Democratic pep rally being held in Denver should energize Democrats and provide an extra boost. Unless it turns out to be a fiasco, it's going to help every Democratic candidate. Colorado will be competitive for any of the likely nominees--except Hillary. Overall, I would say that Richardson is most likely to win Colorado and Hillary is the least. Since Kerry lost to Bush by only 5 points in a sleepwalk, this isn't wishful thinking.
The second most important race is the Senate race. Mark Udall is a strong candidate. The question is, has he distanced himself enough from Boulder to win a statewide race? Salazar beat Coors by flipping the Bush Kerry score 51-47 in 2004. He won 10% of Republicans and 57% of Independents. Can Udall match that yardstick? It will be a competitive race. It will be hard for Udall to win 10% of Republicans. Udall has never won a statewide race. Salazar had. So don't even think this will be a walkover. It will be a dogfight. However, Washington already has its eyes on the race, and with the convention in Denver you can bet the spotlight will be on this race. Along with Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Virginia Colorado could produce an avalanche of seats in the US Senate. Certainly its the best opportunity in years and might produce the filibuster proof majority that it would take to get DC and Puerto Rican statehood. Probably nine is too many, but who knows? What Udall has going for him is that 2004 was a down year for Democrats in Colorado at the national level. We didn't win in the 7th or the 4th and weren't competitive in the 6th and 5th. If we view the Regent race as a better gauge of partisanship (people vote for party and not for candidate), then we can see Colorado turned a corner in 2006 and is definitely trending more Democrat. No offense to Regent Ludwig, if rational people were paying attention to that race he would have won by 20 points. His opponent was a complete lunatic. So a lot probably depends on who Udall draws as a Republican opponent. The choices, so far, are pretty dim. Bob Schaffer feels he is owed the nomination--perhaps rightly so. But he is little more inspiring than Coors, has less money to spend and will be competing with a large number of GOP challengers to raise money. Beauprez is a concession on the part of the GOP. Bill Owens is probably the best GOP candidate, but if he gets in it will pick at the scabbed-over differences between the economic conservatives and the social conservatives. The primary will be brutal. Dan Caplis? From your lips to God's ear! Nothing signals a GOP gone off the rails more than nutjob Caplis at the top of Colorado's GOP ticket. General Bentley Rayburn could make the race interesting, but if it gets down to him so much of the GOP money will have been flushed down the toilet that Udall will be rock-climbing in Eldorado Canyon State Park come September. Evidently, Roll Call mentioned that Mike Coffman might be interested in running, but somehow I think this is beltway bullshit. Would the GOP really give up a statewide office of the importance of Secretary of State (Ritter would appoint the successor) or would they talk Coffman out of it? I think they would talk Coffman out of it. So, while it's way early, I say Udall beats any GOP challenger other than Owens. While it might be a dogfight, Udall knows how to campaign, has high name recognition in Colorado and will benefit from the war being the number one issue in Colorado in 2008. Probably the thing that gives Udall the edge in this race is female voters, who will strongly favor him and outnumber male voters 56-44.
The first congressional district will not be a race. Diana Degette did not draw a GOP opponent in 2006 and she probably won't get one in 2008. Kerry won this district 68 to 30 and DeGette trounced her wholly owned and operated Green Party opponent 80 to 20. What's more, the district is arguably trending Democrat.
The second congressional district, vacated by Udall, will be a cakewalk for the Democrat. Full disclosure, I know the GOP candidate, Rich Mancuso through an acquaintance and will be volunteering for the Polis campaign. I also know Tom Plant from when he was selling "stash mugs" up at the accoustic coffee house and consider him a great guy. I'll vote for Jared, Tom, Alice, heck, I'll vote for ANY Democrat (unless I'm living in Steamboat, which is somewhat up in the air right now, stupid real estate market). But I think Jared has the best shot and I'm convinced he wants what's best for my kids. I think he'll win because he will raise money and tons of it and easily. How many other people will have Pat Stryker and most of the Boulder business community on speed dial?
The third congressional district looks to be a rematch of Scott Tipton and John Salazar. This district is arguably trending Democrat, the GOP will have little money to throw at Tipton and Salazar is now pretty entrenched. This is becoming a solid D seat.
The fourth congressional district is becoming the perennial favorite, mainly because Mad Cow Musgrave is such an attrocious candidate. She barely draws more than 5% more than GOP registration numbers and, frankly, has beaten some lackluster candidates in Stan Matsunaka and Angie Paccione, both of whom are rumored to be back in the race next year. Pat Waak (whom, I am honor bound, every time I mention her name, to say that I was wrong about) is working really hard to beat Muskrat. And that's the key difference. Democrats can afford to concentrate our efforts on this one race and go after her tooth and nail. However, Matsunaka--a tool of the oil and gas exploration industry--and Paccione--a candidate that can't seem to go for the jugular--are not the answer in this district. Is Eric Eidsness, the former Reform Party candidate? I don't know. Is Bill Long? Again, I'm not sure. Is Salazar's backing enough to put Betsy Marksey over the top? Never met her. Never seen her speak. Not fit to judge. I do know Brandon Schaffer (he's my state senator.) I think he would be an awesome candidate. But I don't know if he has the fire to raise the money and go to Washington every week. It's also not impossible that Musgrave will have a primary. Regardless, this is the ad that will beat Musgrave, please run it:
Substitute "Marilyn Musgrave" for "George Allen" and you win. You don't even have to pay me a consulting fee.
Forget the fifth congressional district. The GOP primary should be amusing, but we can't win here. Fawcett was an outstanding candidate. We can't do better. I'll check back in if casualties are mounting. But the Air Force ain't taking any of those casualties.
Forget the sixth congressional district. Even if El Tom is running for president, this district is arguably the most Republican in Colorado right now.
I think it's early to tell about the seventh congressional district. If it truly breaks down to a Rick O'Donnell vs. Ed Perlmutter rematch, it will be a walk for Perlmutter, who should be stronger without a primary.